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Jeu Mai 09, 2019 7:46
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Colts Film Room: Andrew Luck benefitting from new offensive system There was quite the difference in approach from Week 1 to Week 2 for Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts’ offense. Luck threw the ball 53 times against the Bengals whereas he only put the ball in the air 31 times against the Redskins.Within this offense designed by Frank Reich Malik Hooker Jersey White , Luck sits at a completion rate of 71.4 percent and has thrown 4 touchdowns thus far. Luck has also thrown 3 interceptions through two weeks of play. Two of those picks were awful throws and should never have happened, but the third was a tipped ball which involve a high level of luck once the ball’s path changes direction. I can’t get myself to knock Luck for those sort of interceptions.Luck is having a very good start to the season, so even though we’re going to look at some negative plays/decisions that Luck is making, the overwhelming percentage of his play has been very good. With that, let’s take a look at a few of Luck’s throws from the Colts Week 2 victory in Washington.Luck opening it up downfieldTwo things you love to see in this first clip is the offensive line protecting Luck in order for him to make this throw, and Luck choosing to take the shot downfield and trusting T.Y. Hilton to beat his man after the ball is released.Additionally, it was the right decision for Luck as you can see the rest of the receivers didn’t really get themselves open on this second-and-9 play. This is what we have come to expect from Luck and Hilton and the offense’s need to put point on the board with ‘chunk plays.’The ball travels about 50 yards through the air — no worries about his arm strength — and it was put right on the money for the most part. Hilton had his man beat despite him having a large cushion and Luck knew that Hilton would have either beat him straight up, or the defender would have to hold in order to stay in the play. Luck was right, and though nobody gets the yards for this play, the ball still moves down the field which is ultimately all that matters when it comes to challenging the defense and putting points on the board. Eye discipline simplifiedInitially when you watch this play, you just look at it being overthrown a bit, and maybe that Luck doesn’t take his eyes off of Jack Doyle throughout the route. That’s what I thought at least, but after looking at it a couple more times, I realized that Luck staring down the right side of the field actually works for this route combination.As you can see there’s a levels approach to this play construction, and resembles the flood/sail concept in that regard. Luck does indeed keep his eyes to the right from snap to release, but it’s by design. The Skins send a rush from the nickel position, thus leaving the rest of the secondary in man coverage and three routes to cover with discipline.Luck does have his eyes set to the right, but the routes are all playing off of each other close enough to where it’s difficult to pinpoint who Luck is actually looking to target here. Eric Ebron is running the 5-yard out, Doyle is running a corner route and Hilton does well in running off his coverage deep and Luck has enough time to make a decision and get the ball out.Ebron, despite his weird attempt at this route, sucks his defender down with him into the flat, Hilton is always a threat deep and this leaves Doyle wide open heading towards the boundary. The two keys here are Hilton sucking his guy inside the numbers throughout his route, and Luck seeing Josh Norman fully committed to running with Hilton. This gives Luck his timing on the throw and it’s done perfectly. Of course the one downfall here is that Luck overthrows Doyle. If Luck puts a bit more air under the ball and doesn’t take a shot to the chest as he releases the ball, this is an easy completion and Doyle would have room up the sideline to earn some YAC as well.The really bad throw from Week 2Look Darius Leonard Jersey , I get that this is about as much of a bang-bang play as it gets in the NFL. Luck begins to get some pressure and didn’t have a lot of time to think about a secondary option. But, for this clip — and the next one as well — it appears that Luck is predetermining who he wants to push the ball to before the ball is snapped.Watch Luck’s eyes. This isn’t the same kind of combination of routes as the Doyle attempt on the last example, these routes are spread throughout the field pretty good. In a nutshell you’re seeing three verticals here with a drag underneath. Luck’s eyes stay to the middle of the field and is clearly wanting Hilton to be open here, but that’s simply not the case.D.J. Swearinger (red circle) is in a single-high look, and is focused in on Luck’ eyes the entire time, and breaks on the ball as soon as it’s released. Ultimately, Hilton has no chance at this ball. Now, had Luck not been so determined to throw to Hilton he would have been able to check the ball down to the running back even earlier than he releases the pass in this case. It was never there. Luck forced this pass, and his running back has nobody covering the left (Luck’s left) side of the field. A lot goes into this one that Luck should have considered. It’s third down with 10 yards to go, so the defense is prepared for at least an intermediate throw here. Next, the field position is a major factor as well. Regardless of which down it is, Luck cannot throw this ball into the middle of the field deep in his own territory. This is a big no-no, and I really hope that Luck gets a stern finger in his face from Reich about it this week. The Colts are up 14-3 at this point in the game. Good teams will put 7 on the board and it’s an instant momentum killer for a team driving to extend their lead.Luck can’t force throws in negative territoryThis was nearly gift-wrapped for the Skins to get another touchdown in this game. Luck follows up his fantastic initial drive of the game with a terrible throw that had no business being thrown at all — at least to Hilton. Luck isn’t under any pressure, Hilton’s coverage is very clearly forcing him to beat him deep with the safety help over the top, and Luck would basically have had to throw it through the defender in order to complete this pass.On the other hand, you have Ryan Grant (green circle) who is facing off-man coverage on a short square-in who comes open on the outside. Again, we see questionable decision-making from Luck deep in his own territory. These cannot continue to come up throughout the season. In 2016, two of the reasons he had such a phenomenal year was because of his excellence in the red zone, and deep in negative field position. This year we’re seeing some bad habits being formed that could cost the Colts a game. This may just be Luck’s largest concern this season with a defense that can’t afford to be gassed when they take the field, or be consistently relied upon to defend short fields against experienced NFL quarterbacks.Pinpoint accuracyThis play not only has great design to it, but Luck shows off his ability to put the ball into a very short window with amazing precision. The Skins’ defensive alignment helps the Colts here as well, and Luck makes them pay. Luck gets a very clear indication that the Skins are at least largely in man coverage as Swearinger is in a single-high look. Luck expects a safety blitz here, and luckily Marlon Mack does his job and picks up the free rusher.Grant is at the bottom of the screen and runs off his coverage while the trio of Doyle, Chester Rogers and Hilton are tight to the formation in bunch. Luck’s five-step drop here is set up perfectly for the timing of Hilton to break open crossing the field with no underneath zone coverage to throw around.Even with Hilton’s coverage (Josh Norman) very close behind him Peyton Manning Jersey , Luck puts this ball in the perfect spot for Hilton to make the over-the-shoulder catch and get some yardage after the catch. It looks simple, but hitting Hilton in stride with Norman trailing closely behind him, all with a blitz coming up the middle of the pocket is not an easy ask. It’s not flashy, but this is a thing of beauty by Luck and we should expect to see a heavy dose of similar plays in Week 3 against an Eagles’ defense that is very familiar with these passing concepts.All in all, we’re seeing Luck work well within Reich’s system as it opens up very quick, accurate passing opportunities for him to get into a legitimate rhythm throughout the game. Luck’s arm isn’t an issue, his ability is clear and present, but he is still a work in progress as he comes back and needs to clean up some of his decision making. Otherwise, we should expect a very good season from Luck. The Colts are a team that will enter the divisional round of the playoffs white hot and on a roll, looking to shock the Kansas City Chiefs with a win at Arrowhead to carry them to the AFC Championship game. It seems like a tall task to accomplish, especially given the potency of this Chiefs offense. They have been incredible to watch this season, with Patrick Mahomes doing things that really shouldn’t even be possible. Seriously. Some of his throws defy physics, technique, and probably the Geneva Convention.It is fortunate too, because on the defensive side of the ball, they have been far less than stellar. They have allowed offenses to move the ball and score with relative ease, with Football Outsiders ranking their defense as 17th in the league in total weighted defense and 32nd against the run. In eight games this season their opponents scored 27 points or more against them. They have needed outstanding play from their offense, and they have had it. Watching them actually began to remind me of another team I remember watching several years ago. The 2005 Indianapolis Colts.Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty ImagesThey were a brilliant team. The offense was star studded, featuring Peyton Manning fully in his prime, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and possibly the best offensive line group of the Peyton Manning Era. Unsurprisingly Darius Leonard Jersey White , Football Outsiders ranked that offense 1st in the league in passing and 8th in rushing. The Chiefs in 2018, by comparison, rank 1st in the passing game and 4th in rushing. Quite an impressive feat, indeed. There is a major difference between these two squads though. Where the Chiefs’ defense has been fairly middle of the road, the Colts of 2005 were a much stouter group. They ranked 8th in total defense and 17th against the run.Like the Chiefs of 2018, the Colts of that year were a force to be reckoned with. They ripped off 14 wins to start their season and benched their starters for their last two games. It doesn’t hold up to compare every stat and number from now and then, because the league is so much different, however, they had the same kind of offensive dominance that we have seen the Chiefs execute this season. That team took their number 1 seed and bye week and looked primed to roll through the competition to a Super Bowl appearance. They showed up to the RCA Dome to a raucous crowd and hosting a 6th seeded Pittsburgh Steelers team that had clinched a playoff berth in week 17 and traveled to Cincinnati to take on the winner of their division, the Bengals. They had no business being there, but they were anyway.Sound familiar?Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY SportsNo one would have believed when that game kicked off that the Steelers would be the team to walk out victorious. The Colts were the 8.5-point favorite. All season long, the Colts had been virtually unstoppable on offense. The thing about the playoffs is that you basically wipe the slate clean when it begins. Whatever was done before doesn’t really matter anymore. By the time they reach the playoffs, teams aren’t what they were early on in the season.For instance, the Chiefs started this season at a ridiculous pace. They had 41 touchdowns heading into their bye in week 12. Prior to their next game, they cut Kareem Hunt after his whole scandal broke, and since then their offense hasn’t been quite the same. Sandwiched in between two games against the dreadful Oakland Raiders are an overtime win against the Baltimore Ravens, a last-minute loss to the Chargers, and a road loss to the Seahawks. In the game against the Ravens the Chiefs were able to score just 24 points in regulation before kicking a game winning field goal in overtime. Against the Chargers, they managed to put up 28 and scored 31 against the Seahawks. Those aren’t poor games, but they are a far cry from their first three games when they opened the season scoring 38, 42, and 38 points. The first 11 games of the season, they averaged 36.73 points per game. Over their last 5 they are down to 32.2. Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY SportsIn short, their offense is very good. If you take them lightly Youth John Simon Jersey , they will make you pay dearly. However, since that infamous showdown with the Los Angeles Rams, they haven’t been putting up the kind of insane numbers they did early on. Sure, in week 13 they put up 40 on the Raiders, but the Colts hung 42 on them, so we can’t treat that as though it tells us much except that the Raiders are awful.They haven’t had Sammy Watkins since week 11, and the exit of Kareem Hunt in addition to Watkins’ injury has definitely had an impact on the Chiefs’ ability to be as deadly as they once were. That is not to say this isn’t still one of the best offenses in the league, simply that they are no longer playing at the level they did earlier in the season. If you remove the Raiders games from the calculation and just look at their average against the Ravens, Chargers, and Seahawks, it puts their average points per game at 28.67. That’s no small feat, but it isn’t insurmountable for a very potent Colts offense.A major factor in the Colts last two wins has also been their ability to start fast on both sides of the ball. They were able to force punts on their first two defensive drives of both of the last two games. Likewise, the offense has scored touchdowns on its first two drives in those past two games. Frank Reich will be prepared to go against this Chiefs team, and the offense can definitely put it on them. If they can come out with a long, grinding drive for 7 points on their first possession and then get a defensive stop and do it all again, it can really go a long way to setting the tone. The major difference between this game and those previous for the Colts has to be that this team can’t sit on a lead the way they have against some of their other opponents. Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty ImagesUnderstandably, the Colts are an underdog. No one expected them to be in this situation. Few will be expecting them to leave Arrowhead victorious. The same was true for that young Steelers team. To go on the road and face the top seed in the conference is a tall task. To do it against a prolific offense led by a star quarterback is even tougher. The Steelers did it by showing up in every phase of the game. They came out playing like they understood exactly how big that game was. To use a cheesy coaching clich茅, they wanted it more. From the coaching to the execution, they started the game playing like the better team and they didn’t let up. That is exactly what it will take to beat the Chiefs in their own stadium. Great execution, total commitment, and an obsession to finish strong. That’s what Reich has demanded of this team all season, and he has gotten them believing in it. Back in 2005 we had to watch as what was arguably the Colts’ best team in the Manning Era get knocked off by a more balanced, more hungry Steelers team that came on the road and punched them in the mouth on their way to a Super Bowl. The Colts have had to fight every step of the way since week 7. They are mentally tough and capable of dominating teams in the trenches. The Chiefs have been the bully on the block all season long. Saturday we’ll see if they can take a punch.
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