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WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections San Diego Chargers Daily LinksSan Diego Chargers NewsSan Diego Chargers OffseasonSan Diego Chargers HistorySan Diego Chargers HumorThe 4th Down Bot Vs. 2018: Part OneNew Michael Schofield Jerseys Stitched ,5commentsHow did the Chargers fare in the most pivotal down in football last year?PSTShareTweetShareShareThe 4th Down Bot Vs. 2018: Part OneIf you missed the Prologue, you can read about the Rebirth of the 4th Down Bot HERE.For everyone else, we’re going to jump right in to the data to see how the LA Chargers did against the odds in 2018.First, let’s call the 4th Down Bot (ver 2.0)back over here so that we can look at the chart:The difference between Bot 1.0 and Bot 2.0 is a more aggressive push in the final minutes of each half. In all other matters, the above chart is identical for both modelsThis monster of pigskin and steel is bent on one ultimate goal: to maximize the gridiron’s most pivotal down. While that sounds nice and dandy, the Bot’s methods are uncompromising and ruthlessly efficient. The good news is that modern football is aligning more and more with the Bot’s point of view, so clashes should be limited as more and more teams begin to utilize analytics to a greater degree. The first iteration of the 4th Down Bot did not take into account the game clock. The Professor fixed this with the second iteration, but those changes really only apply to the final 3 minutes and 45 seconds of each half. In short—the 4th Down Bot has research and historical data that proves that aggressive playcalling on 4th Down can pay off more often than not.Did Anthony Lynn take note?2018art One - Weeks 1-4Now let’s compare these stats with previous seasons!2018:Week 1: 4/7 (57.1%)Week 2: 3/6 (50.0%)Week 3: 6/6 (100.0%)* A 1/6 correction noted between bot 1.0 and 2.0!Week 4: 6/8 (75.0%)2018 1st Quarter season stats: 19/27 (70.3%) agreement2017:Week 1: 5/8 (62.5%)Week 2: 5/5 (100.0%)Week 3: 4/6 (66.6%)Week 4: 5/7 (71.4%)2017 1st Quarter season stats: 19/26 (73.0%) agreementAnd to further the comparison and contrast White Corey Liuget Jerseys , we’re throwing in the last year before Anthony Lynn:2016:Week 1: 5/8 (62.5%)Week 2: 5/5 (100.0%)Week 3: 4/6 (66.6%)Week 4: 5/7 (71.4%)2016 1st Quarter season stats: 19/26 (73.0%) agreementAre you surprised by these results?As a numbers guy, I immediately am incredibly surprised that the amount of agreed plays was absolutely identical for the previous three years. That is, in and of itself, a statistical anomaly. There being only one more 4th down play attempted in 2018 versus the previous two years is also astounding (and very nice for quality comparison!).Many think of Anthony Lynn as an aggressive coach: a loose cannon that could ‘go for two’ at any point. This exercise is ill-equipped to prove or disprove that notion. Instead, it illustrates whether or not coaches were more or less likely to follow good statistics for their 4th down calls. You might be tempted to think that, based on these results, Mike McCoy was unfairly vilified for his playcalling. I’ll leave you with this final roundup:2016 - 4th down calls within own field side (weeks 1-4): 16 of 262017 - 4th down calls within own field side (weeks 1-4): 16 of 262018 - 4th down calls within own field side (weeks 1-4): 14 of 27My interpretation of these numbers is that Anthony Lynn is actually learning from his experiences. While the first quarter of 2018 indicates that he slightly took his foot off of the gas on 4th down compared to 2017, he’s still on the right side of the odds (the league average was 62.4% agreement in 201.What’s more Corey Liuget Jerseys 2019 , the times that Lynn did not agree with the bot was when he decided he’d rather have points on the board or pin the other team rather deep and trust his defense.NEXT WEEK: Lynn Vs. the 4th Down Bot - 2nd Quarter 2018 (Weeks 5-9)-Jason “My Numbers are Dayed” MichaelsTop Ten Offensive Performance of 2017: #10: Tyrell Williams, week 4 against the Eagles Michael Peterson started the Top 10 defensive performances yesterday. Searching through the box scores there were so many highlight performances on offense. It’s tough to narrow it down and I’m still not sure we have it correct. You won’t see Melvin Gordon against the Patriots due to an 87-yard run that was the meat and potatoes of that performance. You will not see Austin Ekeler’s 2 touchdown performance against the Jags. There were a few Hunter Henry performances we had to leave off as well just because some guys put up gaudy numbers. Against the Raiders in the first match-up Henry had 5 catches for 90 yards. He had a big drop on 3rd & 10 however when the team was driving into the red zone. What you will see is Keenan Allen early and often. Same with El Captain. He had some games later in the season that were about as good as anyone at the position this year. Tyrell Williams had some sneaky good games as well but he also was propped up statistically by a couple 75-yard bombs. Don’t get me wrong, big plays are great! Consistency matters, though.What else matters is winning. Which is another reason some of these performances might seem out of order to you. If a guy put up big numbers but it hardly contributed to a win, it’ll be low or you might not even see it. Vice versa. Tyrell’s 5 catch, 115 yard performance comes in ahead of Allen because he did it more efficiently. Allen had 5-138 but on 11 targets. Williams took 6. More importantly, Williams gave the offense a spark plug. He was timely. Allen did have the huge play in the 4th for 50 yards but his damage came when Philly was playing soft.Up until Williams caught the 75-yard touchdown midway through the 2nd quarter, the Chargers hadn’t done anything offensively. The opening drive seemed promising but was cut short by a sack fumble. Next two possessions were punts. The team takes over down 13-0 after giving up a field goal. One thing you cannot do is come out and punt for a 3rd time in a row. They didn’t have to worry about that.The Chargers had the perfect call on for the defense the Eagles were in. What appeared to be an “Invert Cover 2.” So there was no safety help and with how fast Williams is White Joe Barksdale Jerseys , all Rivers had to do was let the speedster run under it.The offense wasn’t able to generate points out of this next play, but it’s a 3rd & 14. You can’t help but appreciate the effort on this play. Chips the defensive end to ensure the deeper routes have time to get open. Ends up with the ball and makes a guy miss for a gain of 20 yards.To give you an idea of how the team Chargers’d this one, Branden Oliver had 2 targets before Tyrell had another target. Which, his next one went for seven yards and kept them ahead of the chains and allowed them to pick up another first down.It was an efficient day for Williams. He put the team on the scoreboard early. That kept them in it. That’s why he’s 10 on the list.